The sub-prime conundrum

Great perspective piece in yesterday's Journal from Jon Hilsenrath's "Ahead of the Tape". In the piece Hilsenrath quotes former Indonesian Minister of Economics Rizal Ramli who explains that the US is having difficulty swallowing its own medicine. My concern is that the US economy is soon going to resemble Japan's in the 1990s...


Seven decades after the Great Depression, economists still are trying to calibrate the government's proper role. As Mr. Paulson is discovering, the answers aren't easy.

If policy makers embrace tough medicine, allowing banks to fail and mortgage defaults to soar, they risk an Indonesia-style downward spiral in which millions suffer.

If they intervene too aggressively to forestall the pain, they could end up with a different problem, a financial system that remains dysfunctional for years, as Japan's did when nonperforming loans were allowed to sit idly on bank balance sheets throughout the 1990s.

Waning US influence in Latin America

The article by Joe Contreras in this week's Newsweek subtitled "The influence the United States once claimed as a divine right in Latin America is slipping away, fast." Obviously China has enormous economic pull for the region; but Iran and North Korea? Come on. Is it our markets or our policies and actions that have contributed to the US's declining influence.

"From Tijuana to Tierra Del Fuego, American rivals are making rapid inroads into a region that the United States has long regarded as its natural sphere of influence. Though the United States remains Latin America's largest trading partner by far, Russia, China and Iran are cutting deals, opening up new markets and building diplomatic ties. Even North Korea has forged diplomatic relations with Guatemala and the Dominican Republic in recent weeks as Washington's focus remains stuck on the Middle East. "The Monroe Doctrine that the United States has had for nearly two centuries has completely gone out the window," says Alejandro Sánchez, a research fellow at the Washington-based Council on Hemispheric" Affairs.

Rumsfeld speaks...watch out

The following op-ed piece written by former Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld poses some interesting, and troubling points; especially when juxtaposed with Naomi Campbell's 10 steps to dictatorship. The quick passage of the Patriot Act so shortly after 9/11; Clear Channel's burning of the Dixie Chicks for their statements about President Bush; the promotion of the use of torture; the employment of private contractors; not to mention the bizaare story of Andrew Card and Alberto Gonzalez trying to force Attorney General Ashcroft to sign documents expanding the wiretap law all hold the mirror to Rumsfeld and the actions of the Bush administration during its first term.

From the article:
"The world is saying little and doing less as President Hugo Chávez dismantles Venezuela's constitution, silences its independent media and confiscates private property. Chávez's ambitions do not stop at Venezuela's borders, either. He has repeatedly threatened its neighbors." - See passage of the Patriot Act, legalization of torture, and burning of Dixie Chicks records by Clear Channel; also see fear of US actions, particularly in AFRICOM.

"Turf-conscious subcommittees in Congress inhibit the country's ability to mobilize government agencies to tackle new challenges." - forget about subcommittees in congress, what about 'turf-conscious' departments sharing information prior to the invasion of Iraq (see Defense vs. State)

"But when institutions no longer serve our interests well -- or, worse, hamper important efforts -- we need to hear more about reform through public commentary, in Congress and on the campaign trail." - Our way or the highway? Sounds like yet more steps to isolate America...

Banksy returns to the West Bank

A good friend who grew up in Nablus shared this BBC piece on the return of Banksy's artistry to the West Bank barrier...Provocative stuff.

Bedouin Darkness Spreads With Oil Money

Does anyone else follow the writing of Youssef Ibrahim of the New York Sun? Never paints a flattering picture of Middle Eastern society. He does, however, present interesting perspectives, misguided as they may be. I point this out only because his piece today adds to the consideration that globalization, rising petrodollars and a declining dollar may have on the future of US business:

Excerpt: "And the mother of Islamofascism, Saudi Arabia, where 200 senior royals of the ruling family are playing with several billion each and buying up stakes in strategic companies such as Disney and Apple, and Citibank, too, and using the rest of the oil bonanza to fund madrassas, militant mosques, and theological institutes across America and Europe."

Finally found it

The ominous chart that WSJ ran in August 2006 (last year) showing the correlation between new home sales and the S&P 500. Chart was done by David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch. Fortunately the scenario may not be so bleak, as Peter Coy of Business Week pointed out...

My boy George W....Will, that is

Love (almost) every article by George Will for putting perspective on topical issues...His piece on November 19 in Newsweek is no different. Democrats rolling back free trade agreements.

Two great lines: "GM seems to have seen a tunnel at the end of the light" by choosing to shed deferred tax credits due to a bleak outlook; and, at the end of the article: "the stock market has predicted nine of the last three recessions." Touché!

Add Russia to the list

Investment in Kenya has been heating up for years and now it is going mainstream by appearing in Newsweek. Guess who is there? China, Russia, Petrodollars, etc...Not surprisingly, "Russian banks are fast outpacing Western private-equity investors..."

End of Israel??

Wow...ominous statement by Olmert in Annapolis has got to get Israelis scratching their heads...."what did he just say?"...

More from the NYT on Petrodollars

I missed this article in Tuesday's NYT that provides great perspective on the amount of cash being generated by oil producing countries ($5B per week!) and the difficult time they have finding places to invest especially, it seems, as the dollar's fall shows no sign of letting up...

The Chinese and Arabs in Africa....

Oh, here's a report from the IMF that I missed from last week that shows the Chinese and Arabs spur investment in Africa but investment in the continent from the US is down.

Flooding in Jakarta

Here it is - more tangible evidence of rising sea levels due (or not) to global warming and climate change. I really enjoyed traveling through Indonesia over ten years ago and hope that it is not completely flooded in another ten years...With Google's announcement to spend tens of millions of dollars on Renewable Energy technologies, we are certainly on our way towards finding solutions...only question is: do we have enough time?

Dollar's descent

But I guess there is an upside to the dollar's downside:

Airbus seeks additional cuts to offset 'life-threatening' dollar decline

Foreign ownership continues...

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) invests in Citigroup and becomes one of the finance giant's largest shareholders, ahead of Saudi Arabia. Globalization is increasingly coming under fire in the US, especially as petro-dollars (Dubai Ports World) and Chinese yuan (CNOOC) eye all of the opportunities presented by the deflating dollar and congress is controlled by Democrats. On a recent trip to Europe I was told of all the Irish investing in properties in Cape Cod...but this was just before the subprime debacle...

When Tea Leaves just won't do...

Banana-Leaves kicks off under the shadow of the Middle East conference being held just up the road in Annapolis, MD. We are a group of seasoned international media analysts who have been actively supporting clients around the world. Being news junkies, we are always looking for forums and venues to sound off and share our insights. And, alas, we have finally succumbed to the blogosphere. We are going to be freewheeling it here, initially at least, covering a wide range of topics from WTO to Terrorism to Middle East to Sudan to Turkey and elsewhere. Something along the likes of "Middle East Monday" to start your week, "Turkey Tuesday", "WTO Wednesday", "Terrorism Tursday", "Free-for-all Friday", and "Sudan Saturday or Sudan Sunday" to round things out. The intent of this blog is to share interesting news along with insightful analysis and hopefully a heaping helping of debate. (Sorry, still in post-Thanksgiving mode.) Because, as someone once said, "it is through debate that we learn to relate..." Hopefully we'll make it through the next 30 days.